Gold market analysis

Gold Price Short-Term Target Down to $4,510 – August 25, 2026, 10:59 AM  
Although spot gold prices surged as high as $4,680.94 yesterday, they ultimately closed at $4,635.58, failing to hold above the strong resistance level of $4,660—the Gann square angle. On the daily chart, measured by Fibonacci extensions across three timeframes, selling pressure is mounting significantly above the $4,600 level.

Since April 17, the price has advanced nearly 78.6% (reaching $4,687.37); since March 2, it has also approached the 50% extension level ($4,681.74). Measured from the January 29 historical high of $5,595.46, the rally has surpassed the 38.2% extension but still has over $100 of room to reach the 50% level at $4,769.84.

Yesterday, we noted that gold may have completed its fifth wave and is now poised to enter a corrective ABC pattern—adjusting against the move since August 14. According to Elliott Wave theory, once the price breaks below the fourth-wave low, a higher-degree third wave will follow. Currently, the fourth-wave low stands at $4,450.84; therefore, after testing this level, traders should consider re-establishing long positions rather than chasing further declines.

This morning, gold has already broken below the hourly 20-period SMA at $4,653, with lows approaching the 50-period SMA at $4,615.60—the closest pullback to this moving average since the upward breakout on August 19. While bullish investors might consider entering longs at this point, both higher time-frame analysis, short-term cyclical patterns, and fundamental and news-driven factors strongly suggest a high probability of breaking below the 50-period SMA. A break below this level could trigger additional stop-loss sell orders, further pressuring prices downward. Conservatively, gold is expected to stabilize only around $4,510. Therefore, it is advisable to establish short positions between the hourly 20- and 50-period SMAs, with partial profit targets set at $4,510 and $4,450.

The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.