Gold market analysis

Gold Market Analysis: Gold Prices Fluctuate in a Narrow Range Ahead of Midterm Election Results 4/11/2026 10:56 Finalized
The U.S. midterm elections have entered the vote-counting stage. So far, the Democratic Party has gained more seats than the Republican Party in both the Senate and the House, intensifying market risk aversion. In addition to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling below 4.9%, the USD/JPY rose to 148.77 in the late New York session yesterday, but plunged to 157.61 this morning. The USD/CHF rebounded to 0.8218 last night before meeting resistance, and also fell sharply to 0.8133 this morning. As for gold prices, they have risen three times this week, approaching the $3,970 level, but have met clear resistance each time and are currently holding above $3,900.
As vote counting is still ongoing, financial markets are expected to remain range-bound until the outcome is determined. Once the result is clear—or even if an unexpected outcome emerges, such as the Republican Party losing control of both the Senate and the House—volatility will intensify, triggering stop-loss orders from both bulls and bears. Therefore, it is advisable to wait and see for now. The technical trend of gold prices has not changed significantly. The 20-day SMA on the daily chart, currently around 4,069, remains an important dividing line between bulls and bears. Gold is expected to trade between $3,910 and $3,976 for most of the day.
In addition, ADP will release its October private-sector employment change report tonight, with expectations of an increase of 68,000 jobs, down from 90,000 in September. The market may use this as an opportunity to amplify its risk-aversion effect. Given the strong negative correlation between oil prices and gold prices, if oil prices fall as a result, gold prices may still rise. However, the market will still await Friday’s October nonfarm payrolls report to assess the state of the labor market. Therefore, the impact of the ADP data, whether positive or negative, is expected to be short-lived. A rise in gold prices toward $3,976 is still viewed as a selling opportunity, but positions must be opened and stop-loss levels set at the same time to reduce additional risk caused by market volatility. Of course, the vote-counting process for the U.S. midterm elections may still trigger market turbulence, so adopting a wait-and-see stance for now is also a viable strategy.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.