Gold market analysis

Gold Market Analysis: "Price Likely to Break Out of Sideways Range"  
October 21, 2026, 10:52 AM  

Gold prices have shown a soft performance. Although they surged earlier in New York trading yesterday to $4,155.45, they were capped by the hourly 50SMA at $4,153 and quickly reversed, falling further to $4,106.52 during early Tokyo session trading—the lowest level since last Friday. Subsequent rebound efforts have been weak, with the hourly 20SMA at $4,123 once again acting as short-term resistance.

With the Federal Reserve set to hold its monetary policy meeting next Tuesday, expectations for a rate hike are low. The market appears eager to push gold lower ahead of the announcement to create room for an upward move. If officials maintain interest rates unchanged as expected, gold could rally sharply. However, $4,210 is likely to remain a strong resistance level. Conversely, if a surprise rate hike occurs, gold may break down further, leading to significant losses for long positions established at lower levels.

Since falling below $4,200 on September 28, gold has been range-bound. A major breakout is now anticipated. With only five trading days remaining before the Fed's decision, gold has once again tested the $4,110 level. Investors should therefore be cautious about the risk of a downward breakout from the current sideways range, potentially testing the $4,000 support. That said, traders can still follow technical signals to make buy or sell decisions. Currently, this could represent a buying opportunity, but a drop below $4,100 would warrant immediate stop-loss orders. For intraday rebounds, key resistance levels include the hourly 50SMA and $4,160.

The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.