Gold market analysis

Gold Price Tests 4210 Again, Risks Rising  
Completed on 17/09/2026 at 10:59  

As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% rate hike following its policy meeting, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75–4%. All 12 voting members supported the decision. In its statement, the Fed noted that economic activity continued to expand steadily, domestic spending remained resilient, productivity and capital investment were strong, employment and labor market conditions advanced in tandem, and the unemployment rate showed little change—though inflation remained elevated. The current tightening is expected to help bring inflation back to the 2% target more quickly. The committee remains committed to price stability and will continue maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

In its latest economic projections, the Fed raised the median estimate for the key interest rate this year from 3.8% in June to 4.1%, indicating another potential rate increase within the year. Additionally, the median forecast for PCE inflation was revised upward from 3.6% in June to 3.7%, while core PCE inflation rose from 3.3% to 3.4%. The central bank now expects inflation to return to the 2% target only by 2029.

Although the outcome aligned with market expectations, the unanimous approval of the rate hike and the hawkish forward guidance led to a sharp drop in gold prices immediately after the Fed announcement. Spot gold briefly dipped to $4,235.4 before recovering. This morning, it peaked at $4,318 but faced resistance at the 20-period SMA (currently around $4,316) on the hourly chart, followed by another decline.

While Fed officials still see room for one more rate hike this year, the mid-term elections in early November may limit the likelihood of a move by late October. If a hike occurs in December, markets will have sufficient time to adjust. Until then, gold prices are likely to fluctuate based on data releases. A break above $4,410 seems unlikely at present; instead, the market appears more inclined to test the $4,210 support level. Meanwhile, $4,310 is likely to act as a pivot point and major resistance for medium- to short-term trends. Today’s trading is expected to range between $4,260 and $4,310. Should prices retest $4,235, a double-bottom rebound would be highly probable. In the near term, technical factors suggest that gold will likely trade in a volatile, sideways pattern.

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.