Gold market analysis

Gold Prices Expected to Remain Under Pressure This Week  
September 14, 2026, 11:11 AM  

The U.S. August CPI data indicated persistently high inflation, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. According to CME's FedWatch tool, interest rate futures suggest an 86.7% probability that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points at this week’s policy meeting. Last week, apart from the Japanese yen, all major non-U.S. currencies weakened against the dollar. The New Zealand dollar fell 1.47% against the dollar—the worst performer—followed by the Swiss franc, with the dollar rising 1% against the CHF. The Australian dollar, the highest-yielding among major currencies, also declined 0.89% against the dollar.

Following the release of the U.S. August CPI data last Friday, gold prices initially plunged to $4,292.35 but quickly rebounded on the hourly chart to $4,388.76, reaching a high of $4,402.56. However, prices subsequently retreated and closed in New York below $4,350. This morning, Asian markets opened lower with a gap down, testing levels around $4,325 before recovering slightly. Nevertheless, resistance remains near the 20-period SMA on the hourly chart (currently around $4,350), and a double-hourly reversal suggests a high likelihood of another short-term drop below $4,300.

From a technical perspective, the hourly chart of spot gold has clearly formed a head-and-shoulders top pattern. Measured from its lowest point since August 7 at $4,282.67, a breakdown below this level would target approximately $3,868. In the short term, the key support is the Gann 225-degree angle at $4,310, which acts as the neckline. A break below this level would signal further downside toward the 180-degree angle at $4,210. If gold fails to launch a strong recovery and retest the 270-degree angle above $4,410, two scenarios are likely: first, gold will remain weak ahead of the Fed’s rate decision; second, if a rate hike occurs, the downward trend may extend into early next week. The current strategy remains focused on selling on strength, with the first major resistance at $4,360.

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.