Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Surge Sharply—Beware of Correction" 6/8/2026 10:44 Completed  
After months of turmoil, the market has chosen to accept the easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran—or perhaps Trump's desire to avoid letting Middle Eastern geopolitical developments affect the midterm elections—leading him to halt further military action against Iran. Moreover, there remains strong domestic opposition in the U.S. to military strikes on Iran. With less than three months remaining before the midterms, it is believed that the U.S. will temporarily accept Iran and Oman each controlling the northern and southern passages of the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to prevent escalating U.S.-Iran tensions from dragging down Republican prospects in the midterm elections. Trump has consistently opposed imposing fees on vessels using the Strait of Hormuz, so whether the situation truly stabilizes will ultimately depend on the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections. 

If Republicans retain control of both the Senate and House after the midterm elections, it is almost certain that the U.S. will continue to take a firm stance toward Iran. Should Iran and Oman announce tolls for vessels using the Strait of Hormuz, this would likely provoke a strong military response from the United States. For now, markets can only hope that the 60-day temporary agreement will bring a period of calm to financial markets. Although free passage through the Strait of Hormuz may not resume immediately, shipping routes are expected to be restored soon. Once data shows a significant increase in crude oil shipments via this route, oil prices are likely to face further downward pressure, while gold prices will rise further. 

Yesterday, spot gold prices unusually showed a one-sided upward trend throughout the day, rising steadily from an Asian market low of $4,065.54 to reach a high of $4,267.71 during New York midday trading. It failed to pull back significantly afterward and further advanced this morning in Asian markets to hit $4,304.15. From a Gann square perspective, gold has broken through the strong 180-degree resistance at $4,210 and is now approaching the weaker resistance at $4,310. Therefore, it can be temporarily concluded that gold has stabilized above $4,210 and is likely to target the strong 270-degree vertical angle resistance at $4,410. However, caution is advised: gold is expected to briefly peak tomorrow. If the current upward momentum continues, early next week may bring significant downward pressure, with prices potentially falling near $4,120 before resuming their upward movement. 

On the daily chart, gold has broken above the 50SMA (currently around 4159), suggesting a new upward wave is expected. However, there may still be a short-term pullback to consolidate first. Buyers could consider entering once the price retraces to the 50SMA. The first intermediate target would be approximately $4,417, which corresponds to a 50% retracement of the decline that began on April 17. The second and third targets are seen at $4,575 and $4,770, respectively. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.