Gold market analysis

Gold Price Rebound May Create Room for Further Decline – June 22, 2026, 09:23  
The United States and Iran have launched peace talks in Switzerland aimed at resolving Iran's nuclear program and permanently reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump has once again threatened that the United States will strike Iran if Hezbollah continues its attacks on Israel. 

The United States and Iran are holding talks in Switzerland on opening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. U.S. Vice President Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas, among other officials, attended the discussions. On Sunday, Vance told reporters that significant progress had been made over the past several hours, with more expected in the coming hours. 

A U.S. diplomat involved in the talks said that the day's discussions covered aspects of the nuclear deal, explored ways to ensure consistency and consensus among all parties, and addressed plans to advance future negotiations at both political and technical levels. However, during the talks, Trump threatened that if Hezbollah continued attacks on Israel, the United States would launch strikes against Iran. 

Gold prices softened last Friday, partly due to ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and also under pressure from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance following its interest rate decision on Thursday. Spot gold briefly fell to $4,121 before gradually recovering. This morning, prices rebounded sharply, primarily driven by progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. 

Spot gold prices have risen to $4,220. On the hourly chart, gold has broken above the 20SMA (currently around $4,160) and is approaching the 50SMA (currently around $4,221). In the short term, the 20SMA acts as a key intraday support level, with a high probability of breaking through the 50SMA. Currently, prices are constrained by the previous correction low at $4,219, suggesting consolidation followed by an upward breakout. At the start of this week, gold could target $4,310. However, investors should note that the latest PCE data from the U.S. will be released on Thursday. If it signals rising inflation, markets may increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year, which would put downward pressure on gold. The current rally might merely be creating room for a future decline, with $4,310 seen as a near-term resistance level. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.