Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Rally Shows Signs of Weakening" 10/4/2026 10:54 Finalized 

The United States and Iran plan to hold talks in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. It is reported that Iran has emphasized that the ceasefire agreement must include Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has also instructed to start direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible, but at the same time made it clear that he would not cease fire in Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed. However, the success of the negotiations remains uncertain. In particular, Iran's demand for international acceptance of its uranium enrichment is the main cause of the war. As for charging "toll fees" to ships using the Strait of Hormuz and even turning it into a long-term levy, that is another issue. 

However, the market's optimism that the US-Iraq war is coming to an end has put pressure on oil prices. The May contract for crude oil in New York was hovering below $99 this morning in the Asian market. Last night, the US announced that the final value of the real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was 0.5%, lower than the market's expectations and the initial value of 0.7%, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. The Atlanta Federal Reserve predicted that the GDP growth for the first quarter of this year would only be 1.3%, which is believed to be an excuse for the oil price to fall. In addition, the year-on-year increase in the core PCE in the US in February dropped from 3.1% to 3%, which also became an excuse for the gold price to rise further last night. However, the spot gold price, which had reached a high of $4,801.14, was blocked and fell back, and this morning it was as low as $4,737.96. 

From the hourly chart, the upward trend of gold prices since March 23rd shows signs of weakening. The pattern of each wave being higher than the previous one may have been broken yesterday. It is expected that the bulls and bears will have a fierce battle at $4,700. Whether it can remain above this level is extremely crucial. In the short term, the trend may develop with $4,700 as a strong support and a flat-bottomed descending triangle. News from the US-Iran negotiations is likely to cause gold prices to fluctuate. If gold prices fall below $4,700 and it turns from support to resistance, the first important support level will be $4,567.04, while $4,800 has clearly become a short-term strong resistance. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.