Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Set to Show Breakthrough Movement" 18/12/2025 10:28 Finalized 

The gold price movement yesterday could be roughly divided into three parts. It continued to rise in the first half of the Asian session, then dropped to a low level and moved sideways in the European session. After the opening of the New York market, it rose again and then fluctuated at a high level. The spot gold price reached a high of $4,348.81 yesterday, but failed to reach the first upward target of $4,352.09 mentioned yesterday. From the hourly chart, the gold price has encountered resistance near $4,350 three times since last Friday. This morning, it even broke through the 20SMA ($4,330.7). Does this indicate that the gold price is preparing to launch a major correction wave before the Christmas holiday next week? 

Judging from the short-term cycle, today is a turning point for gold prices, meaning a peak has been reached and a decline is expected, with a tendency to gradually test the low of last Friday at $4,257.34. However, yesterday, gold prices rose sharply in the early New York session, climbing from $4,315.1 to a high of $4,343.96, and this morning's low was only $4,324.54. In other words, yesterday's strong upward candle still supports the upward trend of gold prices. Therefore, what needs to be watched first is whether gold prices can continue to hold above the 20SMA on the hourly chart. If they close below this line for three consecutive hours, the risk of a decline will increase. Secondly, whether the bottom of the aforementioned strong upward candle will be breached. If it closes below its lowest point, it will also be regarded as a signal of a decline. Only then should the short-term cyclical trend of gold prices peaking and falling be considered. 

Since the short-term cyclical trend indicates that the gold price will peak and fall today, has the top already emerged or is it about to form? Therefore, in addition to the above pessimistic considerations, investors must also be mentally prepared for the possibility that the gold price may break through yesterday's high, or even the top of the large sideways range of $4,353.7 since last Friday. If it does break through, it will be a strong breakout signal, and the judgment that the gold price will peak and fall today will not hold. Instead, the gold price's trend before the Christmas holiday is likely to rise further. The recent repeated fluctuations of the gold price at high levels can also be seen as a sign of energy accumulation for a possible upward breakthrough. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.