Gold market analysis

Gold price expected to hit bottom at $3,800 in the medium term  
July 17, 2026, 11:08 AM  

As expected, gold prices broke below $4,000 and reached the measured downside target of $3,987 based on the TD line. After testing $3,974 early in New York trading yesterday, spot gold rebounded to a high of $4,016.64 before declining again. It later made a new intraday low at $3,969.78. Although it briefly rose to $3,996.06 this morning in Asian markets, it clearly faced resistance from the 20-period SMA on the hourly chart (currently around $4,003), prompting another decline. The price stabilized temporarily after touching the $3,970 level. 

For now, the decline in gold prices is primarily driven by the high likelihood of a new U.S. military attack on Iran in the near term. It would be inaccurate to attribute the price drop solely to profit-taking, as gold has shown a volatile downward trend since Tuesday, following a noticeable rise on Monday—indicating fresh selling pressure from new funds entering the market. In terms of short-term trends, gold may only find a bottom and rebound next Monday. However, if Trump decides to launch an attack on Iran this weekend, the chances of a sharp drop in gold prices on Monday are very high, potentially pushing prices down to the Gann square level at $3,810 before stabilizing. 

The monthly chart of gold shows that the 20SMA currently stands at approximately $3,820. Since gold broke above this level in October 2022, it has only closed below it once—specifically in September 2023. Therefore, the 20SMA on the monthly chart can be regarded as a key long-term support level for gold prices. Based on this, strong support is expected around $3,800, which should be sufficient to trigger a significant mid-term rebound. If the rebound targets 50% of the decline from the historical high, gold could rise to $4,777.78. Additionally, considering the largest upward move since the November 2022 low, gold has now retraced over 38.2% from its peak (to $4,075.37). A 50% correction would bring prices down to $3,605.82, but this scenario appears unlikely at present. Instead, gold is more likely poised to initiate a strong mid-term recovery rally. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.