Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Under Short-Term Pressure, May Form Double Bottom Rebound" 13/7/2026 11:16 Completed  
Military conflict between the U.S. and Iran has reignited in the Middle East, with an explosion occurring near a U.S. military base in Bahrain. The U.S. Central Command stated it had destroyed dozens of Iranian targets, aiming to weaken Iran's ability to continue attacking international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices opened higher in Asian markets, rising as high as $74.64, while gold opened lower, breaking below $4,100 again. Gold prices subsequently continued to decline, falling to a low of $4,061 before briefly rebounding to $4,077.50, only to drop back below $4,070 later. 

Federal Reserve Chair Wash will testify before the House committee tomorrow, on the same day that the U.S. releases its June CPI data. Core CPI is expected to remain up 2.9% year-on-year, while overall CPI is projected to rise slightly less than 4.2% year-on-year due to a sharp drop in oil prices. Nevertheless, inflation remains significantly above the target level. Markets anticipate that Wash may hint at the possibility of a rate hike during the hearing, and if this signals a shift in monetary policy, gold prices could face downward pressure. 

From the daily chart, although gold prices broke above the 20SMA (currently around 4109) earlier this month, they failed to close above this level for three consecutive trading days and have since retreated below it. At the start of this week, prices are likely to face pressure due to these factors. However, last week gold repeatedly approached the 50SMA (currently around 4146), differing from previous trends, indicating a potential upward breakout. Once short-term influences subside, gold is still expected to rebound significantly. In the short term, prices may test the prior low of $4022 as support, but there is a chance of forming a double bottom. If gold continues to decline, a bottom could be reached by Thursday with a subsequent rebound. Unless the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes noticeably, $4000 will remain a strong psychological support level, while the 50SMA on the daily chart acts as the primary resistance for any bounce. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.