Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Show a Short-Term Double-Bottom Rebound Pattern" 5/5/2026 10:59 Completed
The situation between the US and Iran has heated up again, causing oil prices to surge and gold prices to fall. Iran's proposed 14-point "final settlement plan" includes the withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East, the lifting of the blockade, the unfreezing of assets, compensation for Iran's losses caused by the war, and the lifting of sanctions. However, after reviewing it, Trump found it unacceptable, claiming that the plan did not address the nuclear issue. Recently, there have been sporadic skirmishes between the two sides. The US claimed to have sunk an Iranian speedboat, while Iran said it hit a US warship. The United Arab Emirates also claimed to have been attacked by Iranian drones and missiles. 

The US-Iran negotiations remain at an impasse, and the supply of crude oil is once again affected, pushing up oil prices. The risk aversion sentiment is on the rise, and inflation expectations remain high. The difficulty in lowering interest rates has hit gold prices. Yesterday, the spot gold price in London closed at a low of $4,501.23, but then continued to rise. This morning, it reached a high of $4,546.77. The trend of New York crude oil was more volatile. It rose to $107.46 in the European midday session, but then dropped sharply to $101.49, lower than the pre-rally low of $102.75. Although it climbed again later, it failed to break the peak. After several attempts to reach $107 failed, it dropped again. This morning, it bottomed out at $103.95 before stabilizing. 

Looking at the spot gold price's movement from the hourly chart, after falling to the edge of $4,500 yesterday, the 9RSI has dropped to the extremely oversold level of 14, thus creating a rebound. It is highly likely to form a double bottom with the low point on April 29th. Currently, the gold price is encountering resistance at the 20SMA ($4,545). As the gold price did not maintain the upward trend as mentioned yesterday, the prediction of peaking and falling back on Thursday this week is no longer valid. However, based on the cyclical trend, the gold price is expected to bottom out and rebound today, and is likely to fluctuate upward for the rest of the week. $4,660 is regarded as the main short-term resistance, and a breakthrough above this level may once again challenge $4,810. $4,500 is expected to serve as the short-term support. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.