Gold market analysis

"Gold Price at $4,960 Is Ideal Selling Point" 8/4/2026 10:43 Completed 

The situation in the Middle East is highly unpredictable, and the financial market has been greatly affected by the remarks. Two days ago, US President Trump said that if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, he would destroy this "civilization". However, two hours before the deadline, Trump said that in response to Pakistan's request and after receiving Iran's ten-point proposal, he believed it could serve as the basis for negotiations, so he agreed to suspend the attack on Iran for two weeks. Iran also stated that during this period, ships using the Strait of Hormuz would be able to pass safely. 

The news led to a sharp drop in oil prices and a sharp rise in gold prices. The May futures price of oil in New York once fell as low as $91.05 this morning, with a decline of as much as 16.6% from the high of $109.19. It later rebounded but has not yet returned to above $100. The spot price of gold once reached as high as $4,856, with a maximum increase of about 3.2% or more than $150. However, even if the two-week ceasefire can temporarily relieve the pressure on crude oil demand, oil prices may not fall straight down, and gold prices are unlikely to soar. 

The US-Iran negotiations are doomed to fail. 

When the pressure on crude oil demand eases, will Trump once again put pressure on Iran? Besides, what exactly are the ten points proposed by Iran? Because according to English and Chinese media reports, there are huge differences in the descriptions of these ten points. Some key points, for instance, accepting Iran's plan to enrich uranium (which is the main reason for the US to attack Iran); lifting the sanctions imposed by the US and other countries on Iran, does this mean lifting the sanctions that have been in place for decades? Also, Iran will charge $2 million from each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but share it equally with Amman to compensate for the losses caused by the war. However, some media reported it as "compensating Iran's losses in full based on the assessment results", which is a world of difference! I think, based on the above suggestions, the negotiations are doomed to fail! 

Regarding the gold price, first of all, the spot gold price has risen back above $4,800 and has broken through the 45-degree angle of Gann at $4,810. The next major resistance level remains at $4,960. Will the gold price take advantage of the temporary ceasefire to challenge $5,000 and then fall sharply again due to the breakdown of the US-Iran negotiations? It is impossible to say so just based on the point of "accepting Iran's enrichment of uranium". If the gold price really rises to $4,960 at that time, it will be a good time to sell. In the short term, the gold price is expected to fluctuate between the 20SMA ($4,696) and 50SMA ($4,918) on the daily chart. In terms of the intraday trend, the 50SMA ($4,811) on the 5-minute chart is extremely crucial. Once it is broken, the gold price is expected to decline further, with the first important support at $4,731. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.