Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Expected to Reach $4,960 Before Stopping" 2/4/2026 10:04 Finalized 

US President Trump made a national address during the Asian morning market, causing a sharp rise in international oil prices and a sharp fall in gold prices. Although he said that the United States does not need oil from the Middle East, and those countries that need to obtain oil through the Strait of Hormuz must be responsible for maintaining this waterway, it is believed that the rapid reversal of oil and gold prices was due to his statement that the US military operation against Iran would last for two to three weeks, and if no agreement is reached, it would strike Iran's energy facilities. 

Influenced by his remarks, both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil have risen back above the $100 level, but the gap between the two has narrowed to less than $2. Spot gold prices rose to a high of $4,800.58 in the Asian market this morning before falling back, hitting a low of $4,650.3. This is in line with my view yesterday that gold prices are approaching a short-term strong resistance level. The $4,650 level has slightly broken through the strong support level of $4,660 at the Gann level angle. In comparison, the $4,810 resistance is weaker, while the $4,660 support is stronger. In other words, gold prices still tend to rise further until they approach or reach the strong resistance level of $4,960 at the Gann 90-degree angle. 

From different timeframes, gold prices have been supported and met resistance at various moving averages. As seen on the hourly chart, after testing the 20SMA (currently around 4751.5), the price rebounded strongly. On the 1-minute chart, the price has regained its footing above the 20SMA (4697) and has even challenged the 50SMA (4709). Therefore, it is expected that the 50SMA will be broken through within the day, with the major resistance seen at $4742.5. From the daily chart, today's high has broken through the 20SMA (4783.8), suggesting that in the short term, the price will likely remain above the 20-day SMA or $4810 (with a high chance of breaking through after consolidation), while the 20SMA on the hourly chart or $4660 will serve as strong support. In summary, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $4660 to $4810 in the short term. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.