Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Short-Term Rebound Faces Resistance at $4,660" 25/3/2026 10:53 Completed 

Gold prices have continued to rebound. After forming a triangle on the hourly chart, spot gold prices broke upward through the 50SMA (currently around 4397) in the late New York trading session yesterday. This morning, it rose to 4601.08 US dollars, just over a hundred dollars away from the 4720.17 US dollars indicated by the 100% Fibonacci extension level mentioned yesterday. Additionally, gold prices have also surpassed the previous low of 4503.47 US dollars set on March 19th, thus breaking the downward trend on the hourly chart. 

On the other hand, this morning's high in gold prices approached the 38.2% retracement level of the biggest decline since March 2nd at $4,603.70, which can be regarded as the first significant resistance for this rebound wave. The subsequent important resistance level is the Gann angle at $4,660. Once this level is firmly held, gold prices may further challenge the aforementioned $4,720.17 and $4,759.43 (the 50% retracement level of the biggest increase since March 2nd). 

The US-Iran conflict remains a major risk factor. Although Trump said that the attack on Iran's power plants and energy facilities would be postponed for five days, some analysts believe that this might be a delaying tactic. The US military is using this five-day period to deploy and occupy the Revolutionary Guard's Hormuz Island. If it is captured, Iran will be in a passive position. Moreover, NATO has also expressed its stance, supporting Trump's military actions against Iran. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that since March 19, 22 countries (mostly NATO members) have responded to Trump's call to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. 

As such, the ultimate outcome will be a sharp drop in oil prices, while gold prices may surge sharply (if still moving in the opposite direction of oil prices). As for why gold prices fall when oil prices rise, although it is said that funds flow from the gold market to the oil market, what is the underlying logic? It is very simple. International crude oil is priced in US dollars. A large demand for crude oil means a large demand for the US dollar. When the US dollar rises, gold prices naturally fall! In the short term, since the gold price rebound has just begun, any pullback will be regarded as a buying opportunity. However, from the daily chart, the 20SMA (currently around 4966) has fallen below the 50SMA (4970), indicating that the gold price rally that began in August last year has ended. It is expected that 4960 US dollars (Gann 90-degree angle) will be the ultimate resistance level for this round of gold price rebound. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.