Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Hold Steady Above 50-Day Moving Average, No Sign of a Decline Yet" 16/3/2026 10:46 Finalized 

After the US military bombed Kharg Island, a vital artery for Iran's oil exports, US President Trump called on China, Japan, South Korea, the UK and France to join the US in escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Later, he posted on his social media Truth Social, saying that many countries, especially those affected by Iran's attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, will cooperate with the US and send warships to ensure the strait remains open and safe. 

It is believed that the remarks were the cause of the sharp drop in gold prices in the early trading session in Asia this morning and the high opening and low closing of international oil prices. The spot gold price hit a low of $4,968.09 this morning, then rebounded to $5,030.87. However, it was blocked at $5,030 and fell again, but the low was only $4,982.87. It rose rapidly in the hourly chart and closed at the upper limit of the range. It is temporarily stable in a narrow range above $5,010. 

From the daily chart, the low of gold price this morning is less than 10 dollars away from the 50SMA (currently around 4956.6), indicating a high probability of a rebound. The reason is that since gold broke through the 50SMA on May 22 last year, it has never closed below this line (it briefly touched the line on February 2 this year but closed above it on the same day). Moreover, the military conflict between the US and Iran (or the US, Israel and Iran) only has a direct impact on oil prices, and gold is not the main player. Unless the gold price closes below the 50SMA on the daily chart and fails to quickly recover above it, it is not advisable to rashly conclude that the 50SMA will be broken and that the price will fall further! 

There is heavy selling pressure above $5,100. 

From the hourly chart, as the low point this morning has fallen below the low point on March 3rd, the previous judgment of waves 2 and 3 is invalid. Even so, the possibility of a short-term bottoming out and rebound in gold prices remains very high. Don't forget that the low point this morning at $4,968.09 is extremely close to the Gann 90-degree level at $4,960. Moreover, after breaking through $5,130 last Thursday, the price reached $5,128.39 and $5,121.71 respectively on Friday, indicating that the pressure at $5,130 is still significant. Meanwhile, $5,110 is located at the Gann 133.5-degree angle, which is a secondary resistance (or support) level. 

In the short term, $5,000 is indeed a significant psychological support level, while the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart serves as a crucial technical support. Given that the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM this Thursday, and the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank will also release their interest rate decisions on Friday, it is expected that these events will cause short-term fluctuations in gold prices. However, it is not advisable to be overly pessimistic before the price clearly breaks below the 50-day SMA. It is anticipated that gold prices will fluctuate within the range of $5,000 to $5,110 in the short term. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.