Gold market analysis

Gold prices are expected to fluctuate above $4,000 this week. 10/11/2025 10:06 Finalized 

Good news came as the US government shutdown entered its 40th day. It was reported that the US Senate is expected to move forward with a vote on a bill that has already passed the House of Representatives. However, the Senate will revise the bill to provide short-term funding for the federal government until January 2026. It is said that the bill has received enough support from Democratic senators. Once passed, it will be submitted to President Trump for signature, which is expected to take several days. Trump also believes that the end of the shutdown is near. 

The expected end of the shutdown is likely to boost gold prices. 

News reports have spurred gold prices to rise in the early Asian session this morning. After opening slightly above the psychological level of $4,000, gold prices fluctuated and rose. Despite encountering resistance at $4,018 in Tokyo, there was no significant pullback. Instead, it consolidated sideways and eventually broke through that level, reaching a high of $4,053.13 for the day. 

If the US government ends the shutdown, it should be regarded as good news. Investors' risk appetite should increase and the demand for safe-haven assets should decline, which is unfavorable for gold prices. However, on the other hand, the resumption of operations by the US government means that economic data will be released as usual. The market may be concerned that the non-farm payroll data for September and October to be released by the US Department of Labor later will reflect a deterioration in the labor market, increasing the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December. In addition, the US will release the CPI for October this Thursday. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin previously stated that with the decline in oil prices, the CPI inflation rate is expected to fall. These two factors both increase the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. It is not surprising that the gold price, which has been constrained at around $4,000 recently, has broken through this level. 

Be cautious of a possible adjustment on Tuesday. 

When the gold price is plotted within the Gann Square, it becomes clear that it is currently fluctuating within the range of $4,010 to $4,060. It is expected that $4,000 has become a strong short-term support level, and the high of $4,053.13 is also below the upper limit of the Gann Square range at $4,060. On the other hand, from the hourly chart, it can be seen that the high made by the gold price this morning is the highest since October 27th. In other words, the gold price has broken through the top of the horizontal range on the hourly chart, which is expected to provide impetus for a further short-term rise in the gold price. However, it should be noted that the market trend on Monday often reflects the news over the weekend, and Tuesday usually sees a correction to Monday's trend. Therefore, be cautious of a possible pullback on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the range of $4,020 to $4,000 can be regarded as an important support zone, and the gold price is expected to fluctuate above $4,000 this week. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.