Gold market analysis

"High Chance of Gold Price Breaking Below $4,000 in the Short Term" – Completed on 16/7/2026 at 10:54  
The U.S. plans to intensify its military actions against Iran, including expanding airstrikes to target the "Koh-e-Sar" tunnel complex linked to Iran's nuclear program, as well as seizing Kish Island and other Iranian islands along the Strait of Hormuz. This indicates that Trump aims to achieve two objectives: first, to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities; second, to secure the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes so that vessels passing through are no longer vulnerable to Iranian attacks. Controlling Iranian islands along the strait would enable this goal, while capturing Kish Island would effectively grasp Iran's strategic lifeline, thereby forcing Iran into a nuclear deal with the United States. 

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have intensified, fueling market risk aversion. Gold prices, which had recently risen on the back of easing U.S. inflation, are now seeing profit-taking. After reaching a high of $4,080 during New York's midday trading yesterday, gold weakened and continued to decline in early Asian trading today, currently trading at a low of $4,026.16. It should be noted that markets have already begun pricing in an increased likelihood of U.S. military action against Iran. If such actions materialize, gold is expected to fall below the $4,000 level, with higher chances of testing $3,910, and potentially even dropping further toward the Gann square angle level at $3,810 before finding support. 

On the 5-minute chart, gold prices experienced a strong rebound after yesterday's London close. The subsequent pullback from the high of $4,080.19 was nearly 61.8% of the rebound wave, and the following rally only reached about 50% of the prior decline, indicating weak momentum in the price movement. Currently, gold appears to have formed a minor double bottom around the $4,026–$4,027 level. However, on the hourly chart, gold has already broken below the TD ascending trendline, with a projected downside target at approximately $3,987—close to the July 14 low of $3,985. It is expected that gold will find stronger support only when it approaches this level over the next two days. Nevertheless, given the possibility of U.S. military action against Iran this weekend, gold could gap lower on Monday, potentially falling near $3,910 before stabilizing. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.