Gold market analysis

"Gold Price's 50-Day Moving Average Becomes the Next Target for Challenges" 14/4/2026 10:58 Finalized 

The first round of negotiations between the US and Iran failed, reportedly because Iran only agreed to refrain from enriching uranium for five years and to dilute highly enriched uranium instead of shipping it overseas. The two sides may hold the second round of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan on Thursday. The situation in the Middle East is easing and the war is expected to end. International oil prices have further declined, with New York crude and Brent crude falling back to $97 and $94 respectively. The spot gold price in New York closed the trading session last night by filling the gap left by the decline and rose further this morning, reaching a high of $4,777. 

From the hourly chart, the gold price peaked at $4,856 on April 8 and has since been in a pattern of each wave being lower than the previous one. The gold price needs to break through $4,795 to break this technical pattern and challenge $4,856. However, from the daily chart, the gold price is currently fluctuating around the 50% retracement level of the largest decline since March 2. The more optimistic view is that the gold price seems to have stabilized at the 20SMA (currently around $4,632), while the 50SMA (currently around $4,897) and the 61.8% retracement level of the aforementioned largest decline at $4,914.86 are expected to be the next major resistance levels. 

From the perspective of Gann Square, the gold price is expected to remain stable above the strong support level of $4,660. On the upside, it faces two resistance levels: the first is at $4,810, which is at a 45-degree angle, and the second is the strong resistance at $4,960, which is at a 90-degree angle. Additionally, the median of the long-term interest rate target set by the Federal Reserve is 3.1%, meaning that if the federal funds rate is reduced by another 50 basis points to 3% to 3.25%, the target will be reached. If inflation does not fall significantly below 2% but remains stable around 2.5%, the Federal Reserve will have no further incentive to cut interest rates. In the context of high interest rates and gold both being able to hedge against inflation, how will investors make their choices? Therefore, it is boldly predicted that the gold price is likely to fluctuate within the range of $4,000 to $5,000 throughout the year. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.