Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Tend to Gradually Decline in the Future" 13/2/2026 10:45 Completed

Yesterday, gold prices remained above $5,045 for most of the day, but dropped sharply after the London market closed, breaking through the bottom of the sideways range. The lowest point reached was $4,878.24. This seems to be due to the stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll report for January. Additionally, the US will release the January consumer price index (CPI) tonight. It is expected that the overall CPI increase will drop from 2.7% to 2.5% year-on-year, and the core CPI increase is expected to fall from 2.6% to 2.5% year-on-year. However, the strengthening of employment data exerts upward pressure on inflation. Moreover, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to not cut interest rates until June at the earliest. During the three months before that, gold prices lack the impetus of interest rate factors, and the US economic data is not entirely negative, increasing the pressure for gold prices to correct. 
From the daily chart, the gold price rebounded to a high of $5,119.24 this week, approaching the 61.8% retracement level of the largest decline from the historical high of $5,595.46, which is $5,140.37. However, it dropped sharply yesterday and broke below the 20-day SMA (currently around $4,746). This morning's rebound high of $4,986.31 was close to the 50% level of yesterday's largest swing ($4,889.37), and then it fell sharply again and tested below $4,980. From this, it can be inferred that the rebound in the daily chart has ended, and the rebound in the hourly chart has also been blocked at the good-bad dividing line, increasing the risk of further decline significantly. 
Measuring the daily chart's trend with Fibonacci extension lines, if the extension reaches 100%, the gold price will fall to $3,927.9. If the hourly chart is used as the benchmark and the historical high is taken as the starting point, and if it also reaches 100%, the gold price could fall to $4,748.54. From Gann's square perspective, the gold price is currently fluctuating within the range of $4,960 to $5,010, but it is testing the lower-level fluctuation range of $4,960 to $4,910. Since the gold price broke through $4,900 yesterday, it is highly likely to test this level again or even fall below it. As $4,960 is at a 90-degree angle, it will become a strong resistance for the gold price's future rebound. The gold price is expected to gradually test the lower levels in the future. 
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.