Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Expected to Initiate a Rebound Wave" 3/2/2026 10:47 Completed 

At the opening of the European market yesterday, the spot gold price further dropped to $4,402.38 and then began to rebound. It did not reach a new intraday low in New York and rose to $4,855.93 in the early Asian session. From the hourly chart, the gold price formed a pattern of each wave being higher than the previous one. The first rebound high was $4,812.40, and then it fell again, reaching a low of $4,597.02, which was slightly above the important resistance level of $4,810 I mentioned yesterday before falling again. 

This morning, the rebound in gold prices was clearly constrained by the 50SMA (4880) on the hourly chart, and then it pulled back again. As it has broken through the 20SMA (4696), this line can be regarded as the first important support. Optimistically, it is expected that gold prices will consolidate between the 20SMA and 50SMA in the short term, and then break above the 50SMA to challenge the $5,000 mark. The 50% retracement of the biggest decline since last Thursday is at $4,998.92, indicating that $5,000 is a strong resistance level for the short-term rebound in gold prices. 

On the contrary, if the gold price is constrained by the 50SMA on the hourly chart and continues to decline, as seen on the 1-minute chart, the gold price fell to $4,760.02 this morning and has been fluctuating in a dense range, indicating that a breakthrough movement is about to occur. If the gold price breaks below the 20SMA and tests the previous low of $4,402.38, it is highly likely to form a double bottom pattern. During this period, $4,597.02 can be regarded as the first important support level. If the gold price tests the previous low but does not break through this level and turns strong again, it is expected to launch a 3rd wave, and the rebound wave starting from yesterday's low can be regarded as the 1st wave. If the 3rd wave is equivalent to 1.618 times the 1st wave, the gold price can rise by $733.84 from the previous low. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.