Gold market analysis

"Short-term rally in gold and silver expected to end" 13/1/2026 10:32 Completed 

Yesterday, both gold and silver prices soared. The spot gold price reached a high of $4,630.09 in London after the market closed, while the silver price hit a high of $86.24, both setting new historical records. However, they both dropped sharply afterwards. Today, in the early Asian market, they fell to $4,575.57 and $83.43 respectively. The sharp rise and subsequent fall of gold and silver prices are believed to be directly influenced by the CME's increase in margin requirements for both. The initial margin for the March silver futures contract was raised by $3,000 to $25,000, while the initial margin for gold futures contracts was increased to $22,000 and $24,200 from $2,000 and $2,200 at the end of last month. The aim is to reduce speculative activities in gold and silver to lower their volatility. 

From the hourly chart, using the Fibonacci extension lines to measure the movement since December 31st, if the spot gold price reaches the 100% extension level, it will be at $4,633.21, which is very close to yesterday's high of $4,630.09. It is also only about $27 away from the strong resistance level of $4,660 on the Gann Square. It is estimated that the short-term upward trend of the gold price has come to an end, and the previous peak of the upward trend before this, that is, $4,500.5, will become the retracement target and a strong support level. It is expected that after the gold price stabilizes at this level, it will launch a new round of offensive. 

As for the silver price, from the hourly chart, due to its high volatility, even if the Fibonacci extension line is used to measure, the time starts from January 4th. If it reaches the 100% extension level, the silver price could be around $86.55, which is very close to yesterday's high of $86.24. Therefore, it is also regarded as the completion of the upward trend. The retracement target for the future is $82.75. Besides technical factors, whether the US will send troops to Iran will affect the price trend of gold and silver. However, I believe that even if they rise, it will be short-lived, or they may even fall sharply in response. This is because the US military action against Iran will not be a protracted war! 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.