Gold market analysis

"High Probability of Gold Price Breaking Downward" 8/1/2026 10:31 Completed 

Yesterday, the ADP in the US announced that the number of jobs in private institutions increased by 41,000 in December, which was less than the expected 49,000. The change in employment positions in November was revised upward from a decrease of 32,000 to a decrease of 32,000. After the release of the data, the gold price dropped sharply. The spot gold price fell from $4,445.66 to $4,427.95 and then rebounded, but was blocked at the $4,454 level. It then dropped again, hitting a low of $4,423.81 before a stronger rebound occurred. After the London market closed, it rose to $4,468.54 and then dropped again. This morning, it rose to $4,466.84 and then fell back, but found support at the $4,440 level. 

Judging from the reaction of gold prices to the ADP employment data, the market is not overly pessimistic about the performance of the US job market. Unless the non-farm payroll figures for December, which will be released this Friday, are extremely poor, the retail sales performance should be relatively better in December due to the Christmas and New Year effects, and the demand for labor in the service industry is greater. Therefore, the non-farm payroll data should not deviate significantly from expectations. 

It is expected to hold steady at around $4,400 within the day. 

From the hourly chart, gold prices have successively broken through the 20SMA (4454.14) and 50SMA (4463.26). After reaching a high of $4,500.5 on Wednesday, they have been on a downward trend. The subsequent movement has gradually taken on a sideways pattern, with the highest hourly closing price also gradually declining. The sideways consolidation at the high end indicates that a breakthrough movement in gold prices is imminent. The current trend clearly leans towards a decline. The expectation of a short-term peak yesterday has been fulfilled. $4,410 is believed to be the first target for a test within the day, and it is still expected that gold prices will tend to fall to $4,387.67 (the 50% retracement level since December 31) before stabilizing. 

On the other hand, gold prices formed a double top at $4,404 on December 30 and January 2. It is expected that there will be a struggle for gold prices to fall below $4,400 within the day, but $4,460 is likely to be the resistance for the intraday rebound. Gold prices are expected to be trapped in a range of $4,460 to $4,410, but the overall trend remains weak. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.