Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Must Stay Above 4,400 to Maintain Uptrend" 22/12/2025 10:29 Finalized 

This morning, the spot gold price finally reached a new historical high, rising to a peak of $4,385.04, and then consolidated above $4,380. The silver price, which had already hit a new high in October this year, continued to climb, reaching a high of $68.81 this morning. The market expects that the further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are the main driving force. It was pointed out long ago that the high gold-silver ratio needed to be adjusted. There are three possible scenarios for the performance of gold and silver prices. Currently, both gold and silver prices are rising continuously, and the silver price is rising at a faster rate, causing the gold-silver ratio to decline. Therefore, the silver price can be regarded as an indicator of the gold price. 

However, investors should be aware that the 9RSI on the monthly chart of silver has approached 94, while that of gold has exceeded 96, indicating that both remain at extremely overbought levels and are at risk of a significant correction. Although an overbought market can become even more overbought, this does not mean it can be ignored. When the market suddenly recognizes that gold is severely overbought and needs to adjust, the price of gold could drop by over a hundred dollars. Investors without stop-loss orders or those overly optimistic would face the risk of substantial losses. Therefore, investors should adhere to their original trading rules. Regardless of whether the gold price reaches new highs, they should operate based on the upward and downward signals and should not suddenly increase their positions. 

Although the gold price has reached a new high, it has made the double top pattern on the daily chart more obvious. For the gold price to rise further, it must break through the $4,400 mark and remain above it. Only then will more investors believe that the gold price has bottomed out at the $4,400 level and has more room to rise, driving the gold price up further. This morning, the strength of the gold price reaching a new high was not strong, and there was no large amount of buying after that. It is estimated that the Christmas holiday is approaching, and the market has already left the scene, causing the fish and shrimp to become arrogant in the water. 

It is expected that the short-term range will fluctuate around 4380. 

The intraday performance of gold prices will depend on the market opening in Europe. If gold prices rise strongly and reach a new high then, it is expected to break through the $4,400 mark. However, $4,410 is located at the 270-degree vertical angle of Gann's theory, which presents relatively strong resistance. Moreover, the liquidation activities before the Christmas holiday will make it difficult for gold prices to rise. If gold prices close above $4,400 before the Christmas holiday, the possibility of further climbing in the future is relatively high, and it may quickly challenge the $4,510 mark. On the contrary, gold prices may have the opportunity to retest $4,380 or even fall to $4,360 before finding support. With the holiday approaching, the sparse trading volume will cause gold prices to fluctuate aimlessly. $4,380 is expected to be the level where gold prices shuttle back and forth. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.