Financial encyclopedia

Gold prices performed extremely strongly in 2025, rising by approximately 60% throughout the year and setting new historical highs on multiple occasions. This round of upward momentum was not driven solely by short-term news but reflected a significant increase in market demand for safe-haven assets and asset allocation. The significance of the strengthening gold price is no longer merely a breakthrough at the price level, but rather a transformation in its role as an asset. 

The shift of market focus 

The World Gold Council pointed out that from a macro perspective, the market focus shifted significantly in 2025. Investors no longer solely concentrated on inflation and interest rate hikes but gradually turned their attention to the uncertainties brought about by economic growth slowdown, geopolitical instability, and policy reversals. In this environment, gold was once again regarded as an asset capable of bearing risks rather than merely a trading tool. 

Structural support: Investment and central bank demand are the main forces. 

The forces driving up the gold price exhibit structural characteristics. Investment demand continues to increase. Central banks' continuous gold purchases have become an important support. Demand for gold in jewelry and industry is not dominant. This reflects that the role of gold is gradually shifting from a consumer good to an asset allocation tool, and its price performance is more dependent on capital allocation rather than physical consumption. 

Price Imagination in 2026 

Entering 2026, many market analysis institutions have begun to put forward relatively aggressive price assumptions. Some opinions suggest that under the circumstances of persistent safe-haven demand and high macroeconomic uncertainty, the gold price may have the opportunity to challenge the range of $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce. Such predictions reflect the market's imagination of an extreme risk environment rather than a definite judgment on the future. 

The stance of the World Gold Council 

It is worth noting that the World Gold Council did not set any specific price targets for gold in its 2026 outlook. The Council deliberately refrained from defining the future trend in terms of price and instead adopted a scenario analysis approach to illustrate the potential changes in gold demand under different macroeconomic conditions. 

Propose three main scenarios. 

Moderate economic slowdown: Monetary policy shifts to easing, gold demand remains relatively stable
Rising risk aversion: Economic slowdown exceeds expectations, gold demand increases significantly
Economy regains momentum: Real interest rates rise, gold's appeal may be dampened
These scenarios are not predictions but are used to illustrate the potential roles of gold in different environments. 

Overall, the World Gold Council focuses on scenarios rather than prices to illustrate the value of gold as an asset in uncertain environments.