Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Likely to Break Out of Narrowing Triangle" 17/12/2025 9:50 Completed 

The U.S. non-farm payroll rose by 64,000 in November, exceeding expectations. However, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%. The market believes that the employment report reflects a deterioration in the labor market, but I don't think this is a deviated employment report. A careful examination of the sub-items of the employment report shows that the overall labor force in the U.S. decreased by 323,000 in November compared to September, while the number of unemployed people increased by 228,000. Clearly, the numerator increased while the denominator decreased, so the quotient must be larger. 

The US job market has not deteriorated. 

On the other hand, the report shows that the number of people re-entering the labor market in November was 2.618 million, an increase of 293,000 from 2.325 million in September. This is often interpreted as an increase in job opportunities and a sign of optimism about the economic outlook. The duration of unemployment also supports this view. The number of people unemployed for less than five weeks increased by 316,000, while those unemployed for five to 14 weeks decreased by 165,000 and those unemployed for 15 to 26 weeks decreased by 101,000, indicating that job seekers generally found employment relatively quickly. Additionally, the average weekly working hours increased from 34.2 to 34.3, and the average hourly wage rose from $36.81 to $36.86. Therefore, a rise in the unemployment rate alone is not sufficient to prove that the job market has deteriorated. 

Yesterday, the spot gold price rose to a high of $4,318 in the early Asian session and then continued to decline. The intraday low was $4,272.4, which was reached half an hour before the European market opened. After that, it rebounded steadily and reached a high of $4,292.09 half an hour after the European market opened. It then declined steadily, hitting a low of $4,273.99 before rebounding. It formed a double bottom with the low made before the European market opened. Eventually, it rose to $4,335 before adjusting and hitting a low of $4,291.08. It briefly tested the high made in the early European session before rising again. 

Resistance is expected at $4,360 on Thursday. 

From the hourly chart, the gold price has been moving in a narrowing triangle since last Friday in New York. Measured by the Fibonacci extension line from the broader range of movement, the 100% extension level could reach $4,365.29. If measured from the low of yesterday's European midday at $4,273.99, the 100% extension level would be $4,352.09. Therefore, the current question is whether the gold price will continue to rise or start a correction wave. 

Gold prices fluctuated repeatedly yesterday and closed near a doji pattern, remaining firmly above $4,300. This morning in Asia, prices continued to rise, not only holding above $4,300 but also breaking back above the significant resistance level of $4,310, which is the 180-degree point on the Gann Square. They have continued to reach new intraday highs up to $4,325.39. It is estimated that the previous day's high of $4,335 will be the first important resistance today. If this level can be broken, gold prices should be able to further challenge $4,352 and $4,365. However, it should be noted that $4,360 is another Gann angle, although not a significant resistance, it lies between the two major challenge targets and cannot be ignored as a resistance. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.