Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Break Out of Sideways Range and Continue to Strengthen" 25/11/2025 10:03 Finalized 

New York Fed President Williams currently stated that monetary policy is moderately tight and hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in December. The probability of a rate cut next month, as reflected in interest rate futures, has risen from 44.4% to 70%. After stabilizing above the 20-day SMA (currently around 4057) for several consecutive days, spot gold prices rebounded sharply. Yesterday, the daily range exceeded 100 dollars, with the high and low points being 4140.13 and 4040.03 dollars respectively. Even so, gold prices remain within a narrowing triangle on the daily chart. A break above 4245.2 dollars would be regarded as a breakout signal to the upside. 

Williams hints at another rate cut 

Investors should note that $4,110 is at the 90-degree angle of Gann. After the gold price has been consolidating sideways for several days, it has broken through this level. The probability of it returning below $4,110 in the short term has decreased. On the contrary, the possibility of it further challenging $4,160 and even another important resistance level of $4,210 has increased. 

The resistance at $4,110 turns into support. 

From the hourly chart, the gold price has formed an upward trend since October 28th, and the trend line has obvious support. Yesterday, the gold price broke through the resistance level of $4,132.89 formed since November 14th. This morning, it only rose a few dollars, indicating that there is still a considerable upward space in the short term. If the movement since November 21st is regarded as waves 1, 2, and 3, and the amplitude of wave 3 is 1.618 times that of wave 1, then the gold price will have the opportunity to correct only when it reaches $4,167.28, while $4,118.79 is the support level. 

If the Fibonacci extension line is used to measure the trend since November 18th, when the extension reaches 100%, the gold price could reach $4,153.69. In other words, even if the gold price holds above $4,132.89 or $4,110 on a daily basis, there is still expected to be some resistance at $4,153.69 and $4,167.28. Of course, if the market is determined to break through the resistance of the descending triangle, these resistance levels could be easily overcome. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.