Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Trapped in $100 Volatility Range in the Short Term" 21/11/2025 10:01 Finalized 

Yesterday, the gold price reached a high of $4,110.16 in the Asian market. However, it failed to rise above $4,110 for the rest of the day as expected. What was somewhat surprising was that the September non-farm payroll report, which was delayed by more than a month, showed that the overall non-farm payroll increased by 119,000 in September, more than twice the expected figure and the first time it exceeded 100,000 since June. Excluding the 22,000 new government jobs, private enterprises added 97,000 jobs, also more than the expected 62,000 and the most since June. The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. 

Gold has not played its role as a safe-haven asset. 

The employment report dashed market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. However, the three major U.S. stock indexes initially rose sharply, seemingly reflecting that the data alleviated concerns about a possible U.S. economic recession. But near the New York midday session, the stock indexes turned sharply lower and closed lower for the day. The Nasdaq dropped 2.15%, the S&P 500 fell 1.55%, and the Dow Jones also declined 0.84%. However, gold failed to play its safe-haven role. Although the spot gold price plunged to $4,046.85 after the release of the non-farm payroll report, it then rebounded significantly, reaching a high of $4,107.29, but it did not challenge the intraday high set in the Asian session. It then fluctuated and fell, hitting a low of $4,043.86 after the London close before climbing again. However, it was clearly blocked at a high of $4,087.14 and then remained in a sideways state. This morning, it rose to $4,088.72 before falling again and continuously hitting new intraday lows to $4,060.66. 

First, a simple Gann angle analysis shows that if gold can hold steady at $4,060, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of $4,060 to $4,110. However, $4,110 has clearly been breached, and the range of fluctuation has been compressed. Gold is very likely to return to fluctuating within the range of $4,010 to $4,060, indicating that the $4,000 mark is likely to be tested again. From the hourly chart, if the Fibonacci extension line is used to measure, from the high on November 19th, if the extension decline reaches 100%, it will be at $3,885.89; if the decline is 50%, it will be at $4,009.39; if the decline is 61.8%, it will be at $3,980.24. Among the three decline targets, the 50% target is closest to the Gann 90-degree vertical angle of $4,010, which is the most significant support level. 

The $4,000 mark must not be lost. 

However, apart from the unfavorable outlook for the US dollar interest rate on gold prices, the Thanksgiving holiday in the US is approaching, and investors will surely pay attention to the related retail sales situation. The good or bad performance is believed to become an excuse for the market to hype again whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. In the short term, gold prices lack significant upward incentives, so at most they will fluctuate within a relatively wide range of $4,010 to $4,110. However, if the $4,000 mark is breached, it could very well be the beginning of a new round of decline! 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.