Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Sideways Movement Preparing for a New Downward Wave" 6/11/2025 10:07 Completed 

Recently, the volatility of gold prices has intensified. For short-term speculators, whether they follow the buying or selling trend, the risk of stop-loss is equally high. Yesterday, the ADP in the United States announced that the number of private sector jobs in October increased by 43,000, exceeding the expected 28,000. The job change in September was also revised upward from a decrease of 32,000 to a decrease of 29,000. What investors should note is that the data shows that only small and medium-sized enterprises with fewer employees have cut jobs, with 15,000 and 25,000 respectively. However, small and medium-sized enterprises with more employees have added 5,000 and 3,000 jobs respectively, and large enterprises with more than 500 employees have added 74,000 jobs. Therefore, although the US labor market is still weak, it is still expected to gradually recover. 

Gold prices officially fell below $4,000. 

However, the gold price did not react much. After a slight pullback, it continued to rise and reached the $3,990 level twice, shortly after the London market closed and towards the end of the New York session. It then fell back in a double top formation. This morning, in the early Asian trading session, it dropped sharply to the $3,966 level before rebounding. It twice rose to the $3,977 level but was unable to break through and fell back. It then plunged sharply to $3,964.66 before rebounding above $3,970. Overall, the gold price fluctuated repeatedly. Yesterday was the first time since it broke below the 20-day SMA (currently around $4,082) on October 27 that it failed to reach the $4,000 mark. The volatility of the gold price has intensified, with a "double kill" flavor, meaning that both weak long and short retail investors are being eliminated, and a new trend market is about to emerge. 

There is strong resistance at $3,980 within the day. 

In the short term, there are two major resistance levels for gold prices within the day, which are $3,970 and $3,990. Meanwhile, $3,965 and $3,930 are the key support levels for the recent period. The broader range of fluctuation is between $3,915 and $4,046. From the hourly chart, the high points of gold prices are gradually declining. The top of the large bearish candle that broke down this morning at $3,980.09 can be regarded as an important resistance level for the day. Considering the daily fluctuation of gold prices is approximately $50, it is more likely that the price will test $3,930 within the day. Even if it breaks through $3,980, it will still face resistance at $3,990 and $4,000. Unless major players are determined to keep gold prices above $4,000, there is no need to take the risk. Investors should especially note that the longer gold prices remain sideways on the daily chart, the greater the potential for a sharp decline once a breakout occurs. If the price breaks below $3,886, it indicates the start of a new round of decline for gold prices! 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu